Monday, October 31, 2011

Long Term Secular Bear? How to Play It?



If you look at the S&P chart for the last 10 years a couple of things stand out. First, 10 years out and we're about where we started. Second, the S&P has been been making lower lows and lower highs. I would not be surprised to see the S&P reach the lowest low before the beginning of the next secular bull market. Historically a bear is finished devouring it's prey when the P/E multiples of stocks are in the low single digits and everyone and her cosmetologist has sworn off stocks forever.

Financials usually lead us out of bear markets and into bull markets. Do you see that happening anytime soon?

This girl thinks the best way to play this market is to write in the money covered calls (or out of the money cash covered puts) on select Dividend Champions or commodity ETFs, picking off short term dividends and option premiums. I think income investors should be patient, build cash reserves and preferably enter positions when the herd is scared. 


No comments:

Post a Comment