Friday, August 31, 2012

Random Thoughts

1) Helicopter Ben owns the day. In my opinion the printing presses are running full bore regardless of what he says. That is how the U.S. and other countries pay their out of control debt.

2) It looks like precious metals and their miners have bottomed and have returned to their long term secular bull market. Out of the money put selling on GLD, SLV and GDX  are probably pretty safe trades. If they do fall after initiating trades there are plenty of opportunities to roll down and out for a net credit. I'd probably throw Freeport-McMoran in that boat as well although there is some China risk as mentioned below.

3) Intel has taken a bit of a beating. I think writing out of the money puts at the 22 or 23 strike is swinging at the fat pitch. I'm in already and probably should have shown more patience but I am a believer in this stock. With their rising dividend, aggressive share buybacks and huge cash reserves there is a lot to like about Intel.

4) Is China's bubble ready to burst? If so, this could drag the markets down. Basic materials stocks could take a hit with it. Steel stocks have already started to fall. Keep an eye on Nucor. It is a rising dividend stock and if it plunges it might be a fat pitch to swing at.

5) Facebook is taking a nose dive again. For the risk on folks there are probably some great put selling opportunities at the 15 or 16 level. The odds are in your favor but I won't be joining you as it's not a stock I want to own long term.

6) Out of the money put selling on Dividend Champions that are at the bottom of their trading range is a fine way to make money in the market.

7) Did I mention swing at the fat pitch? Patience and a plan are paramount.

Have a great day.

5 comments:

  1. Was surprised to see Morningstar has a 5-star rating on FB with a $32 fair value. Will be interesting to see if FB implodes or finds better ways to monetize...like maybe in Search.

    MAW

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  2. I agree with many of your comments. I particularly like number 2 and number 7. I agree with number 1 but don't like it at all.

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  3. Facebook has the users but that's a huge market cap!

    I don't like that central bankers are manipulating markets and currencies either. I don't like the long term prospects of that for my children...But it seems like it leads smart investors into precious metals and out of bonds. I like trading GDX (thinking of GDXJ, the juniors) and maybe put selling on GLD and SLV?

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  4. Totally agree with your response. Shame on the FED. But it leads to actionable trading and investing ideas.

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